Breaking News: Miami Heat finally gain James Harden trade After answering Five Burning Questions

For the record, I couldn’t find the board this tweet was referencing. When I checked FanDuel’s basketball futures, for instance, it still had the Heat’s over/under wins total at 44.5. But let’s use this as a chance to explore the Harden possibility.

I laid out my case in detail three weeks ago, and more I think about it, the more I agree with myself. Especially after what we’ve seen this preseason.

It’s clear the Heat don’t have a great answer at point guard. Kyle Lowry and Josh Richardson were involved in the most underwhelming position competition since Jay Fiedler and A.J. Feeley duked it out for QB1 on the Dolphins. And it looks like, for now, Lowry has won.

Lowry, like Harden, has one year remaining on his contract. The Heat explored waiving and stretching his contract this past summer before deciding against it. This is not a player who seems long for Miami. Whatever you think of Harden, he’s at least an obvious on-the-court upgrade.

Beyond point guard, however, this Heat team is deep. Especially on the wing. Behind Jimmy Butler, the Heat have Caleb Martin, Haywood Highsmith, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and the emerging Jamal Cain all capable of contributing quality minutes. If anything, they’re is a glut at the position. The Heat may be in need of a consolidation trade.

Re-signing Martin could be difficult for the Heat this offseason. Martin could command a salary similar to the two-year, $40 million contract Bruce Brown signed with the Pacers over the summer. The Heat are up against the second luxury tax apron as is and re-signing Martin would likely thrust them beyond it.

So with that in mind, allow me to frame it this way: Would you rather have one year of Lowry and Martin, or one year of Harden?

Basketball-wise, the trio of Butler, Bam Adebayo and Harden would be among the best in the league. Plus the Heat could still keep a majority of their depth. The price for Harden doesn’t seem high. If the Heat can get Harden for Lowry, Martin and a future first-round pick, I think it’s worth considering.

Caleb Martin is a good basketball player. What he did in the Eastern Conference finals was a little bit of catching lightning in a bottle, but good basketball players can do that. Martin will never be the guy averaging 18 points per game, but he’s a strong, disruptive defender, an improving ball-handler, and a legitimate threat from 3-point range. (I’d actually love to see more lineups with Martin as an oversized shooting guard, as opposed to an undersized power forward.)

Because of that versatility, Martin is better suited coming off the bench for this Heat team. He’s their utility player. Playing on the second line, as opposed to with Butler and Adebayo, also allows him to be more aggressive with his own shot.

A second unit with Tyler Herro (staggered in from the starting group) and Martin has the makings of an ideal tandem. Herro can create shots for Martin out of the pick-and-roll with Thomas Bryant, serving up bent defenses for Martin to attack. Martin can help cover up for Herro’s defensive weaknesses.

In terms of the closing five, there’s little doubt that Martin is one of Miami’s best five players. He’s the favorite to be part of a chaotic, switch-everything, 3-point shooting closing group on most nights.

I’ve argued for a Herro-Richardson-Butler-Highsmith-Adebayo starting lineup before and I think we could see that five-man unit at times this season, but it looks like Lowry will end up getting the starting nod at point guard, pushing Richardson to the bench. Starting Lowry also frees up Herro to play off the ball with the starters, before Spoelstra gets to a “Let Herro cook” second unit that he wouldn’t be able to get to if Lowry was coming off the bench as the sixth man.

For now, I think Kevin Love starts at power forward, if only for a few minutes to open each half. Highsmith’s preseason has been really impressive. He’s one of Miami’s four best overall defenders, and he might not be fourth. He’s shooting 60% from 3 in the preseason. If all of that holds, there’s a chance that Highsmith could be starting by the end of the season.

There’s also nothing stopping Spoelstra from changing his starting lineup based on matchups, the way he did in the playoffs last season. Against a bigger team like the Knicks, he could go with Love. Against a smaller team like the Celtics, Highsmith could start at power forward (allowing Martin to keep his bench role). The Heat have options.