BOCA RATON, Fla. — If ever there was an example of on-to-the-next-thing for the Miami Heat, it was provided over the past week: Lose out on Damian Lillard, pursue Jrue Holiday. But when it comes to a third strike, the Heat apparently are out. According to an NBA source familiar with the situation, James Harden is not the next thing in the team’s view.
There is, apparently, a line the Heat will draw, even after the dual Eastern Conference blows of Lillard landing with the Milwaukee Bucks and Holiday hauled in by the Boston Celtics. It doesn’t mean there couldn’t be a change of Heat heart, as training camp continues at Florida Atlantic University, only that the Heat won’t be played in this one, after being placed on hold during the Lillard process by the Portland Trail Blazers and then hurdled for Holiday.
And yet, with Harden again acting out, there is a pathway this time of least resistance, a permutation that could alleviate the Philadelphia 76ers’ headache and actually ease the Heat’s extended outlook. For months, point guard Kyle Lowry has stood as the Heat trade chip of choice, the $28.4 million on the final year of his contract the perfect salary-cap ballast to match in a deal. For months, the Heat have tried to declutter their future payrolls by offloading Duncan Robinson.
Then there are the 76ers, the latest team to be tormented by the tempestuous Harden, after similar sulking with the Houston Rockets and Brooklyn Nets. And then there is former Heat power forward P.J. Tucker, who bolted the Heat in the 2022 offseason after a trip to the Eastern Conference finals in part to play with Harden (and also to cash in on a three-year, $33 million free-agent deal at 37, insistent on his first eight-figure annual salary
And here’s the rub: a trade of Lowry and Robinson for Harden and Tucker works under the salary cap. Such a deal, in fact, would slightly ease the Heat’s position against the luxury tax this season. It also would send out three more seasons on Robinson’s contract for two on Tucker’s, providing welcomed down-the-road cap relief to address Caleb Martin’s free agency next summer. Stop there, and it at least could be worth considering, even with the gamble on a lame-duck Harden, who becomes a free agent next summer.
But as the Heat learned with Lillard and to a lesser degree with Holiday, it’s never as simple as being simple. Teams dealing superstars, or teams with players who are perceived as superstars, are gluttonous. Ultimately, the Blazers could not be sated by the Heat. This time, the line would have to be drawn. No pick tossed in. No Nikola Jovic or Jaime Jaquez Jr. Philadelphia takes it or leaves it.
Considering what the Rockets got from the Nets for Harden, and what the Nets got from the 76ers for Harden, a more robust package might be expected. But this is worn-out-every-welcome James Harden, scoring sizzle until playoff fizzle. So, pennies on the dollar. If even that. Which takes it to a higher plane of any Heat trade discussion in the wake of Lillard and Holiday. Lowry, at 37, can be irascible, including this week’s declaration of himself as the Heat’s starting point guard. But to summarily ship him off would mean offloading the lone remaining sizable Heat salary that could be used in a trade later this season.
The Heat did not bypass the Aug. 31 stretch-provision deadline with Lowry by accident. Yes, there was the element of otherwise counting one-third of his salary on the books for two additional seasons. But such a move also would have removed him as a Heat trade chip this season. Similarly, send a pick, even a protected pick, out at the moment for Harden or some type of post-Lillard rebound trade, and the ability to package picks for something more ample would be lost.
At times when it had made more sense for the Heat to move on Harden, the Heat have surreptitiously made known that they were out. Now, with math available for a deal? Crickets. There was a time when James Harden held value similar, or at least in the same realm, as Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday. That is not this time. There was a time when the Heat turned to a Plan B after losing out on Lillard. That was this past weekend, when a play was made for Holiday. Now there is a perception of Harden as some type of consolation prize. Instead, consolation should be taken in the reality that there yet could be better uses for the assets that remain for Pat Riley, Andy Elisburg and the Heat front office.
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