For the better part of the last two seasons, the Miami Heat have rebuffed, making marginal improvements with an eye toward a splashy, superstar trade. The Heat broke the cycle on Tuesday when they agreed to trade Kyle Lowry and a lottery-protected 2027 first-round pick to the Charlotte Hornets for Terry Rozier. An obvious upgrade over Lowry, Rozier helps the Heat keep pace in the East now, even if he’s not a superstar on the same level as Damian Lillard or Kevin Durant. Like they were with those two, the Heat will always be in the mix for nearly every disgruntled star who becomes available. In the past, they were reluctant to trade a first-round pick for marginal upgrades partly because they were hoarding their.
Now the question is whether the Heat will still have enough to acquire a superstar after this week’s deal if one becomes available this summer. One such name could be Donovan Mitchell, who many insiders anticipate could be the next star on the move if he declines to sign an extension in Cleveland this summer. We won’t know the answer to that question until the Heat cross that bridge. However, because of how their outgoing draft pick protections are structured, the Heat haven’t necessarily taken themselves out of the mix for Mitchell or any other star.
Teams are not allowed to trade first-round picks in consecutive seasons and are only allowed to trade picks up to seven years out, or 2030 in this case.
This implies that the pick owed to Charlotte is automatically moved to an unprotected 2028 pick if the Heat win the lottery in 2025 and subsequently send an unprotected pick to Oklahoma City in 2026.
This implies that the Heat can only trade one first-round pick (2030) between now and the deadline of February 8. It’s unlikely that the Heat will give up that selection.
However, that all changes in June when teams receive picks for the upcoming year. The Heat can exchange the rights to a 2030 or 2031 first round pick and the 2024 pick, which would go to a different team, on the eve of the NBA draft. They might also be able to get the rights to swap picks once more.
The Heat will therefore be able to trade two first-round picks and two swaps beginning the night of the draft, even though they can only trade one first-round pick and one swap at this time.
The Heat could potentially make an offer package that included Tyler Herro, Nikola Jovic, two first-round picks (2024, 2030), two first-round pick swaps (2029, 2031), and the Cavaliers starting to consider offers for Mitchell in June.
Theoretically, they could also trade Herro to a third team in exchange for draft picks and salary that match, which they would then add to their current haul and flip to Cleveland.
Although that package wouldn’t be sufficient to compete with the best offers from teams with plenty of assets, like the Thunder, Spurs, and Knicks, it might give the Heat an advantage if Mitchell makes it known that he wants to play in Miami.
Any team that trades for Mitchell will need to secure guarantees that he will sign an extension because he is eligible to become a free agent in 2026 under the terms of his current contract.
This bears resemblance to the Pascal Siakam trade, in which Siakam pushed the Sacramento Kings away by indicating that he would not be open to signing a contract extension. If Mitchell wants to go to Miami, he can follow suit.
Fans of the Heat will obviously remember that this posturing with Lillard didn’t work out. The Heat front office realized this as well, which is why they made the promised upgrade right away.
The Heat have wisely improved themselves now while remaining in the running for Mitchell or any other superstar who shakes loose this summer. However, nobody can predict what the offseason will bring.
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