After a pair of trades involving the Portland Trail Blazers sent Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks and Jrue Holiday to the Boston Celtics, what can we expect during the 2023-24 NBA season? My stats-based win projections are back to help answer that question, at least during the regular season.
One of the biggest challenges for statistical projections is how disconnected the NBA’s 82-game schedule has been from the playoffs. Add injuries to star players becoming more common, and team performance from year to year hasn’t been this inconsistent in decades. Keep that in mind when you see where your favorite team is projected.
Nonetheless, statistical projections can be revealing. Mine are based on a combination of my SCHOENE player projections for box-score stats as well as three-year, luck-adjusted RAPM from NBAshotcharts.com. I estimate games played based on those missed over the past three years and then make subjective predictions for playing time.
The result is an expected wins total based on average health luck. Because some teams will have better or worse fortune, but we don’t know which ones, the average totals will inevitably be closer to .500 than the actual final standings.
Last year, my stats-based projections beat the market by correctly predicting 60% of team over/under win totals.
Both before and after the addition of Holiday, the Celtics have the NBA’s best projection by a wide margin for a second consecutive season. It did not translate into the league’s best record last year, though Boston was No. 1 in terms of point differential — which is typically more predictive of future results.
In part because Lillard is forecast to play just 67 games during the regular season, the Bucks’ regular-season projection isn’t a reflection of how trading two rotation players for him could help their title odds. As I noted last month, Milwaukee dramatically exceeded its point differential by winning a league-high 58 games a year ago and could drop in the standings while performing at the same level this season.
This projection includes a full season (70 games) of James Harden. Even if Harden’s availability and play are unaffected by his unfulfilled trade request, Philadelphia might move backward in the East pecking order because of the growth of the young Cavaliers.
Despite retaining everyone but Obi Toppin from last year’s playoff rotation and adding Donte DiVincenzo to the mix, the Knicks could see their win total decrease because of health. Only the Sacramento Kings lost fewer games to injury or non-COVID-19 illness than New York’s total of 102 last season, per my tracking.
