Coming off a year where the New York Mets grossly underperformed lofty expectations, can they exceed more conservative one's in 2024?

Coming off a year where the New York Mets grossly underperformed lofty expectations, can they exceed more conservative one’s in 2024?

When predicting baseball performance, one of the more dependable methods is the ZiPS projection model. It gives each team a highly justified, data-driven prognosis, even when it doesn’t always hit the mark.

One of the rare instances where the projection model was merely off is the 2023 Mets. According to Dan Szymborski, the man behind ZiPS, the team was predicted to finish 93-69 and boast “one of the top offenses in the National League.” Rather, the squad went down to a 75-87 loss and saw slippage almost everywhere.

Naturally, ZiPS is lower for the Mets this year as we approach 2024. It’s worthwhile to examine how the model predicts the Mets will do even though it’s not perfect, as seen by their performance last year.

Francisco Lindor is still a top shortstop; according to ZiPS, he will regress somewhat in 2024. With slight offensive declines, ZiPS expects him to be worth 4.9 WAR in 2024 after a season in which he put up 6.0 WAR (he was originally expected to put up 5.5). Lindor should remain in the top tier of shortstops even if his output from 2023 isn’t as high.

According to ZiPS, Brandon Nimmo overperformed offensively in 2023. Nimmo set a career high with 24 home runs last year and was worth 4.3 WAR (compared to his initial projection of 4.6). ZiPS still thinks Nimmo will be worth 3.9 WAR, but they now anticipate Nimmo to underperform offensively across the board. In 2024, he ought to be a productive leadoff hitter going forward.

Among them is Pete Alonso.